Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom.

摘要

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whoseeconomies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries thatmaintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectiousdiseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controllingdiseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infectedanimals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact,either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the UnitedKingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven byunvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the deathof approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of theslaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably includingvaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides asalutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientificopportunism.